Circus Bazaar Magazine
Penned from the crooked timber of humanity
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If there can be taken any silver lining however from the obviously tragic circumstances surrounding his infection with the deadly virus it is that through the combined powers of fear, prejudice and the internet he has focused the worlds attention on the severity of the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa. What is absolutely clear from the above video provided by Time Magazine is that twitter became all of a sudden very interested in the reality of Ebola in connection with its arrival in the United States, and what twitter cares about is pretty much a good indicator of social mood among the major developed nations.
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The same nations that need to be further focused in order to role back the failures of the past months.
[dropcap size=big]T[/dropcap]his call to arms by the head of the World Health Organisation is mirrored on the ground by journalists like Sky News Katie Mark, who has just returned from a Sierra Leone village at the epicentre of the outbreak. She claimed that people are sometimes afraid of reporting the virus. “There are not enough resources being put into stopping the spread of Ebola. If someone dies the body can be sitting there for up to eight days and in that time the disease can spread further. There is not enough knowledge about the virus and people are scared to report it. They see Ebola as a death sentence, that if the family is going to die they would rather they die at home. They do not realise that if they get treatment their chance of survival is greatly increased.”
This is also leading markedly to the spread of the disease as people flee hot zones. Some of whom are carrying the Ebola pathogen which can take as much as twenty one days to show symptoms. This long gestational period is allowing the rapid and wide spread of the disease in an Africa which has become far more densely populated and urbanised than in previous outbreaks.
In 1900 its estimated that about 95% of Africa’s inhabitants south of Sahara lived from primary occupations such as farming, hunting & gathering, cattle nomadism, and fishing meaning that less than 5% were urban. In 1950 (at the very begging of the independence period) 14.7% of Africa’s inhabitants were settled in urban areas. By 2000 it had risen to 37.2% and it is expected to rise to 45.3% in 2015. The support infrastructure for this massive and rapid urbanisation has created roads, rail and more extensive travel as well as new industries like logging and mining. All of which have led to the penetration of previously remote areas where Ebola has typically flared and then died in isolation from larger populations which might have fed it. Recent urbanisation and the economic industrialisation of Africa’s resources are undoing the ‘natural’ barriers of distance and jungle isolation which Ebola has foundered against in the past, allowing it now to spread and create the worst Ebola outbreak in history.
The fact that this disease is only contagious through body fluids, rather than through air and water supplies makes it not especially transmissible and does appear at odds with the mainstream media’s near panicked tone over this latest outbreak. Indeed projected figures if such an outbreak occurred in the UK are far less worrisome than those currently in the 3 nations most affected. Developed nations capacity to stifle such a pandemic with this hard to transmit disease would likely be highly successful.
But that may be the very point of this threat. Poor education, misinformation, fear and the low societal capacity of these very poor, often war torn nations has allowed the scope and spread and sample group of Ebola’s infestation to expand dramatically in a way that would likely never happen in a developed nation. What is highly salient here is that the pathogen has gained the opportunity to evolve in a large sample population of more urbanised and mobile Africans, creating the prospect (although highly unlikely) of it becoming a far more dangerous airborne disease at some point.
Ironically it is the newly gained mobility of the African populations, which is carrying the disease so far and plaguing the quarantine efforts of beleaguered governments such as Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea and the various NGO’s attempting to contain the outbreak. Economic activities, better transport facilities and trade have vastly increased both the disease vectors and their efficiency at spreading Ebola through travelling West Africans. The generally high distrust the populations of these nations have for their governments also creates a lack of social cohesion in dealing with the disease with rumours of government conspiracies and secret genocide often preventing people seeking treatment or staying in quarantine zones. Another factor is the relative cost and process required to define whether the patient has dengue fever, malaria or Ebola which can initially present with similar symptoms.
“Symptoms of Ebola include fever, headaches, muscle aches, internal bleeding and diarrhoea”, said Melvin Weinstein, chief of the Division of Allergy, Immunology and Infectious Disease at Robert Wood Johnson Medical School. “Other diseases also cause those symptoms, meaning a blood test is required to confirm whether the patient has Ebola or another disease, like malaria.”
And to complicate the matter further, the resources of these very poor nations are completely inadequate to deal with an outbreak of this scale. It certainly prompts the question of just how likely is Ebola to mutate into and airborne strain with such increased population exposure. As the virus continues to circulate through west Africa, it may like any other pathogen continue to acquire genetic mutations. So far, however, there is no indication that Ebola is mutating in a way that could allow it to make the leap from becoming transmissible via contact with body fluids (as it is now) to become a germ that could be transmitted by breathing the same air, according to WHO.
With Ebola, “I don’t think we have the information at this time to know what the real risk is but it is probably not zero,” says Ebola expert Thomas Geisbert, a virologist at The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston. The incident that put the spectre of airborne Ebola on the map was chronicled in the book The Hot Zone, wherein, in 1989, the virus was apparently spread via the air from monkey to monkey (although it did not make the leap to humans working in the lab). But experts have subsequently wondered if that lone circumstance of primate-to-primate air transmission was fuelled by the lab setting and man-made systems. As Osterholm notes in his piece, in 2012 researchers found that a strain of Ebola was spread from pigs to non-human primates via the air in a different lab setting. The virus, however, did not then spread from monkey-to-monkey in those circumstance.
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Arguably though, humanity is creating such labs everywhere through urbanisation, air conditioning and transport mediums allowing many more of such lab like pressures on the pathogen to be effected. We may be artificially enhancing the more conservative selection process the Ebola virus is normally under via the huge human presence in the environment. And with a region with such limited capacity to control this outbreak, we may well be allowing its spread to further enhance the virulence and spread of this Ebola outbreak.
“However, we identified only weak evidence for the occurrence of epidemic control in West Africa as a whole, and essentially no evidence for control in Liberia (though slowing of growth was seen in Guinea and Sierra Leone). It is projected that small reductions in transmission would prevent tens of thousands of future infections. These findings suggest that there is an extraordinary need for improved control measures for the 2014 Ebola epidemic, especially in Liberia, if catastrophe is to be averted.” Says David Fisman of PLOS Currents: Outbreaks. (PLOS is an Open Access publication channel for the rapid communication of new research results.)
So as Ebola stands in its current form, it may not be a particularity dangerous pandemic threat to the more developed nations – but its impact on Africa as a major commodity, trade, tourist mecca and labour source could have huge subsequent impacts on the global economy if the epidemic spread widely throughout out the rapidly urbanising continent.
And with recent outbreaks in Spain and Ebola victims arriving unexpectedly in Texas in the US, its clear that Ebola still has the capacity to spread into developed nations under the right conditions.
[dropcap size=big]T[/dropcap]he Hong Kong protest, also called the “Umbrella Revolution” started this September when anti-government advocates were triggered to take action and protest outside the government headquarters in Hong Kong after the Chinese congress decided not to allow civil nomination in Hong Kong, which would have given its people a free vote in their 2017 elections. The people of Hong Kong will now only be able to vote for candidates accepted by a Chinese nomination committee. “This is false democracy,” protesters say.
The Chinese government with its leader CY Leung has continuously rejected the protestants’ requirements and in only a few weeks the pro- democracy protesters became thousands. Hong Kong students preceded a one week boycott of classes from September 22 and have joined the furious crowd demanding more democratic rights for Hong Kong. Also the organisation “Occupy Central with Love and Peace” has played a vital role in the fight for true democracy.
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On September 28 the masses of protestants marched down a central Hong Kong street and occupied another. The police tried to obtain order with pepper spray, tear gas and water guns. The term “Umbrella Revolution” has later been used by the media to describe the Hong Kong protests as many of the protestors have only had umbrellas to defend themselves against the government’s pepper spray and teargas attacks.
On October 1 the National Day of the People’s Republic of China was celebrated with a flag rising at Golden Bauhinia Square in Hong Kong. Students faced away from the flag rising expressing their dissatisfaction with Beijing.
Both the Chinese government and the Hong Kong government have warned protesters not to carry on with the occupation. On October 3 anti-Occupy Central activists fought back by punching and kicking protestors and tearing down their tents and barricades.
Yesterday, October 6, hundreds of Occupy Central activists were still occupying the streets of Hong Kong, despite being given a deadline to end the occupations from the government. Yet, the number of protestants have drastically decreased since the week before.
A Norwegian women who has been operating as a field worker for the Médecins Sans Frontières in Sierra Leone has been infected with the Ebola Virus and is currently in the process of being moved to Norway’s largest hospital for treatment.
Norway’s state run Media (NRK) reported that Ullevål University Hospital had been practicing for such a situation since august and the training that included 340 staff has the ability to care for ten people infected with a virus such as Ebola.
This comes in parallel with the news that the first person to become infected with the virus outside Africa has been confirmed. On monday the Spanish health minister announced that a nurse who had been treating a Priest infected with Ebola in Sierra Leone had tested positive for the disease in Madrid.
According to the world Health Organisations latest Ebola Response Roadmap Update (3rd October 2014) there has been 7470 confirmed cases and 3431 deaths. This is the worst outbreak of the disease since its discovery in 1976.
Putin needs to establish a land link between the Russian Federation and Crimea before the onset of winter. If he chooses not to create such a link, the population of Crimea will surely starve and freeze; this will cause Putin major problems at home in the spring, when hiding the humanitarian catastrophe of an isolated Crimean winter from the Russian people will become impossible.
I’m going to be accused of scaremongering (again), but frankly, after keeping my opinions to myself for quite some time, I simply can’t do it anymore. So here goes: in my opinion, a full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia will occur before the Parliamentary election scheduled for October 26. This invasion will include at least 2 land-based components: a push northeastward from Crimea, and simultaneously from the Donbas westward; it could also be accompanied by a push towards Kharkiv from the north. Furthermore, together with a land war, Russian air power will be used against Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk, and possibly against other major Ukrainian cities. This is my opinion, and my prediction. I desperately hope I’m wrong, but just in case, I’ll be taking my family away from Kyiv on or about October 20-21 – just for a few days…
Here’s my logic:
Putin needs to establish a land link between the Russian Federation and Crimea before the onset of winter. If he chooses not to create such a link, the population of Crimea will surely starve and freeze; this will cause Putin major problems at home in the spring, when hiding the humanitarian catastrophe of an isolated Crimean winter from the Russian people will become impossible.
Occupying territory in Ukraine without the use of air power is now impossible. Ukrainian troops stationed in the Donbas have dug in very deeply in Mariupol, in Berdyansk, and in Melitopol (cities that need to be taken to establish even a minimal land bridge between Russia’s Rostov oblast and Crimea). Furthermore, massive reinforcements can be inserted into the theatre of operations quickly via Dnipropetrovsk if logistical lines between this city and the Donbas remain uncut. This cannot be done without air strikes.
Once air power is used, all pretense as to the supposed non-involvement of Russia in military action in Ukraine (as if anyone still believed the Kremlin’s official line) will be lost. When aircraft cross borders, their trajectories are tracked by radar and satellites. One can argue (although few believe it) that up until now, separatist rebels in the Donbas have been firing from captured artillery and driving captured tanks (although where the source of the shells and rockets that they are firing is more difficult to explain), but no one is going to believe a story about separatist rebels flying MIG-29’s or Backfire bombers from Russia into Ukraine.
Once Putin makes the decision to overtly engage Ukraine’s army and volunteer battalions, limiting his own use of air power makes no tactical sense. Whereas a covert war must of necessity by limited in scope, in an overt war, neutralizing enemy logistics and command and control structures becomes a major priority. In Ukraine’s case these are located in Dnipropetrovsk (the main logistical support base for the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas), and in Kyiv – the capital.
During the past few days, Putin has expressly denied his intent to disrupt the election in Ukraine on Oct 26, claiming that a free and fair vote is in Russia’s interests, and that he cares deeply about the “brotherly Ukrainian people”. Simultaneously, the Russian troop build-up on Ukraine’s borders has been intensifying – both in Rostov and Voronezh oblasts, and in Russian-occupied Crimea. Whenever Putin has expressed positive feelings towards Ukraine publicly during the past months, Ukrainians (with good reason) become intensely nervous…
Opinion polls show that the two pro-Russian political forces running in the current election (Serhiy Tihipko’s “Strong Ukraine” and the “Opposition Bloc” headed by former energy minister Yuriy Boyko) may not gain enough support to cross the 5% barrier required to be represented among the 225 MP’s elected by proportional representation. Although some pro-Russian MP’s are sure to be elected in first-past-the-post constituency races, it is likely that without a PR-elected core, it will be difficult for these “majoritarian” deputies to create a cohesive faction in the next parliament. In such a scenario, Putin’s voice in Ukraine’s domestic politics (i.e. his pro-Gazprom, anti-EU, anti-NATO lobby) will be effectively silenced. Such a scenario is unlikely to be attractive to the Kremlin.
According to Ukraine’s constitution, if a state of war is declared in the country, all elections are cancelled. Furthermore, until such time as a new Parliament is elected, all existing MP’s (including, in the current case, those who largely support Putin’s anti-EU/anti-NATO policy for Ukraine) remain in office. Although it is unlikely that aerial bombardment of Ukraine by Russia will provoke a military reaction from the EU and/or NATO, the Ukrainian government will have no choice but to declare a state of war, and therefore to cancel the Oct 26 vote.
The US administration has made it eminently clear that NATO will not fight for Ukraine. At this point sanctions are the maximum penalty that the West is prepared to impose on Putin for his aggression. However, although officially denied, it is likely that the US and/or other NATO countries have already begun to clandestinely supply Ukraine with some military equipment. Indeed non-lethal aid is quite openly being supplied. The longer Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is delayed, the greater the risk that this aid will be delivered and training will be provided in its use. Furthermore, Ukraine’s military has been taking full advantage of the relative diminution in hostilities during September to regroup and reorganize. The longer Putin delays his inevitable invasion, the better trained and organized the Ukrainian forces will become. With time on the Ukrainian side, and no deterrence from the West, the time for striking down the “fascist regime in Kyiv” is now!
The war with ISIS/ISIL in the Middle East has begun, and US forces are fully engaged; China is preoccupied by protests in Hong Kong; the US public is preoccupied with ebola, and the US elite is in the final stages of the mid-term election cycle; the European Council Presidency and the EU Foreign Policy Commissioner posts are both in transition; NATO has a brand new Secretary General (as of Oct 1). Clearly with all of this ongoing, coalescing a cohesive international response to a Russian invasion that occurs during the third week of October will be difficult. This may spell ‘opportunity’ for Mr. Putin.
Protests in Russia against the war in Ukraine have already begun, and will only intensify during the coming months, unless a crackdown in Russia (under the pretext of war) occurs. Again, time is not on Putin’s side – the longer he waits, the more he loses domestically. In this context we can also mention the ongoing devaluation of the ruble, the continuous decline in oil prices, and the fact that Russia’s best troops (special forces, paratroopers, etc.) have already been on full battle-ready alert for over 6 months (and cannot be kept in this condition for much longer). If an invasion is to happen, it must happen soon.
For all of the above reasons I am not optimistic about the coming weeks. Putin does not command sufficient forces to occupy any more Ukrainian territory than he has already grabbed – particularly given the increasingly hostile population that he would be forced to passify as his forces move westward. However, as demonstrated by the severe devastation that Russian forces have caused in the eastern Donbas since April, the Kremlin’s strategy may not involve occupation – simple destruction will suffice. For this purpose, air strikes on Ukraine’s major cities are ideal. I sincerely hope I’m wrong in this prediction… But just in case I’m right, we will be evacuating our family from Kyiv during the days immediately preceding the Oct 26 Parliamentary election.
